August 13, 2012
The String Wart Revolutions
With the summary firings of virtually the entire general staff of Egypt's armed forces Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi has locked up power for the Muslim Brotherhood. That supposedly benevolent power-sharing, much bruited about on gossamer wings by western pundits, is so much obvious khara. We now have another Islamist state in the Near East. One that controls the Suez Canal, a 165-mile border with Israel in the Sinai, and the tenth largest armed force on the globe. Didn't see that coming when Lara Logan was being repeatedly raped in the street by mob-crazed Egyptian "enthusiasts."
Now all Israel needs is for a similar Islamist coup d'etat in Syria, where our feckless foreign policy has done nothing to influence the outcome of Baby Assad's assured demise. Facebook and Twitter and YouTube don't premise a democratic revolution anytime, or anywhere. They merely make sharing the real-time horrors of mob violence and government bloodletting a more democratically shared experience. What's been happening in the Arab world has not been a Velvet Revolution, or a Green Revolution, or an Orange Revolution, or a Cedar Revolution. It's been a series of String Wart Revolutions, the Libyan, Egyptian, and Syrian strings each more grotesque than the last.
The Suez will be the most interesting short-term issue. Transit of the canal has been notoriously corrupt since its creation, regardless of the reigning authority. Huge cash payments still move one's vessel to the front of the line. Now cash may not be enough. It is relatively easy for the United States Navy to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. How does one ensure the Canal stays open and safe? The British and the French surely won't help us do it after the 1956 debacle.
But hell, what's the big deal with the most vital seaway on the planet? Everyone can just Vasco da fuckin' Gama around the Cape of Good Hope. Probably only adds 12 days transit time. Each way. And oil is cheap, right?
Of long term interest is the perfervid religiosity. The Mubarak regime fell in shockingly short order. Now the street crawlers have their blood up, and a nodding accomplice in the palace. They won't be satisfied thumping some Sudanese or Ethiopians on the noggin. They'll be wanting to thump some Jews. Now, the supposedly well-trained Egyptian army couldn't even protect itself from the street crawlers, and I doubt the street crawlers, armed with some new-found hardware, would pose much of a threat to the Israelis.
But it is a distraction, when Israel must look east. They may not wish to divert conventional resources to the Sinai when Iran is on the menu. If the Sinai gets swarmed by ten thousand hooligans they might just glassinize it. Remember the Six Day War? This would be the Two Hour War.
Most importantly, what can we do to diffuse the instability an Islamist Egypt poses? I suppose the real question is what Obama will do with the situation to further his short term political goals. And the only answer I keep coming up with is start the damned thing.
Obama will be on the golf course , of course. Think Alfred E. Neuman or was it Newman?
Posted by: James Old Guy at August 13, 2012 7:45 PMDude. This post is the #3 answer on Google for "string wart".
Nicely done.
Posted by: Randy Rager at August 13, 2012 10:44 PM"never let a crises go to waste."
Posted by: Skip at August 14, 2012 12:29 AMThis is what comes of minority hires. Eventually, they want to start making decisions, and said decisions are usually of the absolute worst sort.
Posted by: Casca at August 14, 2012 8:36 AMYes, Egypt is contender for the predicted Wag the Dog October event. Where does one place a bet?
Posted by: Guaman at August 14, 2012 4:35 PMWe need a John Wayne in charge, not a Clevon Little.
Posted by: Mockingbird at August 14, 2012 7:13 PMWag the dog.
Posted by: Jeffro at August 14, 2012 7:43 PMMy guess is that Egypt doesn't make a move on Israel. They, and especially their military brass, remember the Third Army being encircled,cut to pieces and very nearly starved in the Sinai back in '73.
In the event that the Brotherhood doesn't remember that and gives the order, I wouldn't be at all surprised for the generals to say, "You and what army?" This would very quickly followed by a coup, sort of like what you see every eight years or so in Pakistan.
This is one of the benefits of unstable countries having their militaries essentially function as wholly-owned subsidiaries of the United States. They act as a check against too much democracy, sort of like the Senate.
On the other hand, wasn't all of this Arab democracy the entire point of the Bush Doctrine?
Posted by: skippystalin at August 16, 2012 3:37 PMSkippy, you're still an idiot.
Posted by: Casca at August 16, 2012 5:00 PMSkippy, I wasn't implying the Egyptian government would attack Israel, just that they are roiling some already excitable boys on the street, and I don't think the government is stable enough to prevent a grassroots assault on Israel.
As for the Bush Doctrine, I'm no neocon. I adhere to the More Rubble = Less Trouble Doctrine. One cannot impose democracy on a people, especially ones who have only known tribalism and totalitarianism. To them democracy merely means majority rule. We voted to kill all the Kurds. So let's get busy. We voted to stone the hoors to death. Let's roll! That sort of thing.
Again with the Canadians!
Posted by: Cappy at August 16, 2012 6:20 PMCappy,
Maybe you should listen to us. My country isn't fucking broke.
Casca,
You're still a cunt.
V-Man,
The government might not be that stable, but you can bet that the army is. They dig Israel and survive solely on American aid.
As to them not supporting Mubarak, at a certain point there was little point in their bothering. I'm also guessing that they got a message from the Pentagon telling them not to go apeshit on the protesters or face dire consequences.
Posted by: skippystalin at August 16, 2012 6:38 PMSkippy,
The army is stable?? All of their leadership was fired in the last 48 hours. They're probably all dead now, too. Puppets loyal to the Muslim Brotherhood have no doubt been installed. They don't know the high level access codes, the sooper top secret war plans, where the keys to the military kingdom reside. They're flying high on the sheer exultation of emotion, and fast power. And probably khat.
This won't end well.
Posted by: Velociman at August 16, 2012 8:09 PMEgypt, to be charitable, is way broke, yet imports fifty percent of it's calories. With eighty million people to feed and their currency reserves gone it is easy to see what the lever of control is going to be, and the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't have the juice to pull it. The Saudis do. No doubt the Americans will volunteer to get screwed on the deal.
The army is just giving the Brotherhood enough rope to hang themselves plainly in the public eye before taking control back. You cannot overestimate how stupid Egyptians are, and the army hasn't.
Posted by: james wilson at August 17, 2012 12:37 AMBoots on the ground, that's what we need. Start with some advisors, then after about 20 of them get shot at a Ramadan dinner we can send the 82nd.
Fore!
Good thinking BO, but the 82nd is tied down fighting "the right war" in Afghanistan. Any other ideas?
Posted by: Casca at August 22, 2012 1:35 PMAgain with the Canadians!
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