Velociworld

DIVINING DEAN

Since the good Dr. Dean is the trial balloon du jour I figured I'd wade into the water and offer meaningless blather on the subject. For a more trenchant observation see Z-boy's take, or Vodkapundit's.

The deal as I see it? It's very early in the season. Dean is the hot shot because he's theoretically the long shot, and he fits the template the media love. Dean has done a commendable job raising cash, especially on the net, but that money can be sliced and diced down to the Washington. That's grassroots support, but party nominations don't devolve to that level. Whatever one may think about the people, party nominations are still the province of the machines. Think the Democrats don't have machines? Tell that to the AFL-CIO, the Teamsters, the NEA, the ABA, and the NAACP. THAT'S the money Dean needs. You can go into a convention with a commendable lead in delegates, but that doesn't mean shit.

Dean plays well in the Northeast corridor and the West Coast. So what? So did Gene McCarthey. Dean cannot bring in the South or the Southwest (read Florida and Texas) and therefore is doomed before he dons the mantle. The machine will let him play his hand out because the DNC will get their hands on some of that money, and because it keeps Bush off the front page. Come Iowa, however, things will change. I'll give Dean New Hampshire due to his proximity, but at some point some serious cigar smokers and going to huddle and demand to know what the fuck's going on. Then things will get really snaky.

Who gets the nod? Gephardt, by all rights. Only he couldn't blow the skirt up of Barbie Doll. That doesn't matter, sometimes. Look at Dole. Maybe 10% of Republicans wanted him going head-to-head with Clinton, but it was BOB'S TURN. Don't think the Democrats can't make the same mistake, although I doubt it.

Kerry? Likely, but again, Northeast elitist doesn't play well in the critical Bible Belt. Acknowledging one's Jewishness doesn't exactly mitigate that, although I don't know why. Some of the most ancient and influential Jewish communities in the country are in Savannah and Charleston, for example. That extrapolates, in my opinion.

Graham? Fucking fool. He's taken his bona fides as senior Democrat on the Intelligence Committee and abused that to the extent he's a jabbering hyena. Bob's Old School, and he'll self-destruct shortly, a sad example of full fury heading in the wrong direction.

Lieberman is tainted, not only because of 2000, but also because he proved himself to be a fucking whore. Conscience of the Senate, my ass. He flopped like a flounder when he smelled power. Shameful. I'd always respected him, a little bit.

Kucinich? He's so lame I didn't even bother to google his name to spell it right. He's 3rd paragraph with Sharpton and Braun (why does a black woman have Hitler's wife's surname? That one's always puzzled me). He's a racially incendiary buffoon, she's an ethically challenged buffoon.

Gores' back in! Did you know? I didn't think so. Totally cornholed everyone who put their trust in him after '00, now he wants back in. I used to think Al was smart. He may be, but he's also criminally insane, and that don't play here.

That leaves Edwards. He has game. He has money. Lots of money. He has Southern strength, he's telegenic, he's basically running as a moderate, which is why the media foolishly won't give him face time. That will change, especially when he kicks ass on Super Tuesday. Edwards is also smart enough to basically keep his mouth shut for now, then he'll spend shitloads of cash in December to craft a position based on the current situation vis-a-vis the war.

And I have to hope for Edwards as the nominee in case things go south for Bush. Because the wild card is still a megalomaniacal pyschotic serial liar from the Great State of Illinois Arkansas New York, who is merely waiting to be drafted as the Great White Female Hope.

My longshot on the VP nomination? Harold Ford, Jr. I don't care who gets the nod. If they don't draft Jr. they're crazy. That man is going places.

My take. Worth the price of spit in Singapore.